12 August 2020, 01:30 | Radio Free Europe
Source: Radio Free Europe
Andrei Parotnikov, leader of the Belarus Security Blog project and an expert in the field of law enforcement, has explained the brutal actions of the Belarusian riot police OMON, recalled how the Berkut troops fled in Kyiv, and claimed that a general strike may convince the police to think twice.
Summary:
● The government uses brutal force blindly and demonstratively for only one purpose: to intimidate people.
● Ordinary people, but not intellectuals took to the street on 9 August and 10.
● The riot police feel no fear of punishment because they have a special status within the system. Their relatives, friends and acquaintances should shame them.
If you try, without emotions (as far as it is possible), technologically and tactically evaluate the actions of the Belarusian security forces during the protests of 9 and 10 August – how would you explain their strategy?
The authorities’ strategy to use force has nothing to do with the scale and the nature of the protest. This is a targeted campaign to threaten people. After all, if the authorities had a task to control the situation, there would be no need to use the authorities had a task to control the situation, there would be no need to use force. Force is used, brutally, blindly and demonstratively, even in the Belarusian province, for only one reason: the authorities are trying to intimidate people.
But after a rather brutal behavior of the authorities on 9 August, the next day much more people took to the streets in different parts of Minsk. Does it mean that the authorities’ strategy has not worked?
It has not worked because the authorities did not expect public protests to reach such a scale. They are accustomed to working with the traditional audience of the Belarusian opposition, most of whom have higher education and are sensible to violence.
On 9 and 10 August, however, those were not intellectuals who took to the streets, but ordinary people. The people, especially in the province, some of whom supported the Belarusian regime only a few years ago. They are not afraid to fight, they are not afraid to even be put behind bars. They came out with a sense of mission to uphold justice. Of course, there is a factor of enthusiasm and emotions – this also can not be ruled out.
It is obvious that the protesters do not have a single strategy, people are acting depending on the situation and are making quick decisions. But if you try to define their strategy, perhaps it is to exhaust the security forces. After all, to run after the demonstrators until early morning every day in full gear can be exhausting in the long-term. How many days of confrontation will take mid-rank commanders to say: “We can no longer go out there, do something to stop these rallies”? Is such a development possible?
Theoretically possible. But one shold understand that not only the riot police, but also the demonstrators can get tired. Therefore, the protests should be massive and long enough for its participants to have a chance to rest. But the problem with the protests is that today there is no clear political agenda that is specifically demanded by the protesters.
The slogan “Leave” is quite clear, but not the one around which you can build a political process to negotiate with the authorities. It is clear that Lukashenko is not going anywhere. Now I see a predominantly emotional component in the protests. But the emotions will go away very quickly and I am not sure that the time is enough to deplete the regime’s resources. A protest like this must last at least a month for this.
Why do the riot police behave so cruelly? Obviously, this is the most aggressive structure. There are opinions that this structure traditionally feels itself above all, even the law. They are allowed to do more than ordinary police officers. Is there ground for such considerations?
Yes, of course there is. There is no example of a riot police officer being prosecuted criminally or even disciplinary – neither for political reasons, nor for treating ordinary people. Of course they feel unpunished because they have a special status within the system.
But deliberate displays of cruelty is an element of the tactics, they aim at breaking the resistance enthusiasm. They believe that the harsher the behavior, the more intimidating the picture, the faster they reach the goal. But nothing is clear here. First, no one is forced to disperse people. I have information that 15 riot police officers have refused to take to the streets on 9 August.
What if the cruelty, which aims to intimidate, causes a backlash and motivates people for a violent response?
They do not think about it. They are accustomed to the fact that no one retaliates to them. Lukashenko called [the people] “sheep”. And they chase these sheep without thinking that they may encounter adequate resistance from them.
Recall the events in Kiev. When the provocateurs started firing at the demonstrators and at Berkut troops, the demonstrators started pulling out their wounded, and Berkut ran away, Berkut fled. This is the question of a group’s resistance: if one runs, the others will run. I hope that these are purely theoretical considerations, which in practice in Belarus will never be tested, and nothing like that will happen.
Do the riot police really live in their special world and united team, in their propaganda bubble, in which everyone loves the president, and they must protect him?
It’s hard to say. But, of course, special units have a culture of eliteness and mutual support, “we are the coolest” and so on. Something like this exists in special forces in all countries. At the same time, they do not live in a separate world in everyday terms. They go shopping, see the prices, the situation in the economy.
Most of them are from the lower and middle classes. So one cannot say that they do not know the real life. This is their consious choice. Either for money, or they see Lukashenko as a guarantor for their social status and financial well-being.
There are discussions in the social networks about how to influence the behavior of the riot police. Either shout “police stands with the people” and tell the riot police that they are the same people as other Belarusians, or, conversely, shame them and threaten them with a possible punishment?
I do not think that a threat of a punishment will work. On the contrary, it will lead to a greater consolidation of these special units. I want to remind you that some people who claim to be members of the democratic opposition have been saying for 20 years that the riot police should be dispersed, the number of the police should be reduced, the KGB should be disbanded, countered and so on.
It is clear that the state and the society need a limit for any authority. It is necessary to build a system where these people serve common public interest and not some group or corporate interests. The riot police have relatives, friends, acquaintances who should tell them that what they are doing is shameful, and that no decent person would want to do something with them after that – a public boycott of these people. After all, everyone wants to believe that they do a respectable job, to be respected in the society. If their actions are shunned by the society, cause outrage, the person will sooner or later think about whether they do right things and what needs to be changed so that their profession and activities do not cause hatred from the majority of people.
